Wednesday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: How Will Hicks Handle the Altitude in Colorado?

Wednesday's Major League Baseball action started early, so let's get right into the meat and potatoes with our best MLB player props and expert picks based on the top MLB odds.

There's nothing quite like full slate of baseball games before getaway day, which is what's on offer, with action starting at 12:35 p.m. ET, a showdown between the Los Angeles Angels and Pittsburgh Pirates.

Then there's an interesting matchup between AL Central contenders the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians at 1:10 p.m. ET, in which we target a pitcher prop. 

There's also a doubleheader, as the World Series odds-contender Texas Rangers and Oakland Athletics will duke it out first at 3:37 p.m. ET before squaring off again roughly three hours later.

There aren't many true late games teed up, with the evening concluding in Colorado when the Rockies host the San Francisco Giants. Can starting pitcher Jordan Hicks bounce back from an abbreviated outing? First pitch is expected at 8:40 p.m. ET.

Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Wednesday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Wednesday’s MLB expert picks

• George Kirby Under 6.5 strikeouts (-143 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Jordan Hicks Over 4.5 strikeouts (+115 via ESPN BET) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Tanner Bibee Under 6.5 strikeouts (-139 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
• Aaron Nola Over 5.5 strikeouts (+106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅

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MLB player props

George Kirby Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Mariners vs. Twins | Moneyline: Mariners (-115 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (+100)/Under 7.5 (-120) via Betway | Start time: 7:40 p.m. ET

Seattle Mariners right-hander George Kirby is one of the best starters in the majors and a contender in the Cy Young odds. He's also already one of the best command pitchers ever.

Kirby is allowing just 0.94 walks per nine innings in 2024 after finishing 2023 at 0.9 BB/9. Additionally, he's increased his strikeouts overall this season, but the majority of those - 12 of 41 - came against an Arizona Diamondbacks team that looked lost at the plate.

For a time, the Minnesota Twins looked similarly lost nearly every game, but they've bounced back significantly from their early-season woes. The Twins sit in the top 10 in the majors in wRC+, and after owning one of the three highest strikeout rates for much of April, they're now down to the ninth-highest.

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For his part, Kirby is projected to record just 5.3 strikeouts on Wednesday. Based on that projection, we're getting roughly 21% +EV on this bet through these -143 odds at BetMGM.

My only note of caution is there's been some two-way action at Pinnacle, but I'd say the buyback on the Over was more a case of the price getting too long (it reached +147). As it stands, the Under at Pinnacle is still -177 after opening at -134.

Best odds: -143 via BetMGM

Jordan Hicks Over 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Giants vs. Rockies | Moneyline: Giants (-175 via Betway) | Total: Over 9.5 (-115)/Under 9.5 (-105) via Betway | Start time: 8:40 p.m. ET

There were always going to be a few bumps in the road for San Francisco Giants starter Jordan Hicks, who's spent the vast majority of his professional career as a reliever. He made only eight starts in 212 appearances before 2024, but Hicks has given the Giants a boost in the rotation thus far. Hicks owns a 1.89 ERA, though he's striking out only 7.11 batters per nine.

However, that shouldn't matter on Wednesday against a truly pitiful Colorado Rockies team. The Rockies own the league's second-highest strikeout rate, and they pair that nicely with the second-worst wRC+ and second-fewest runs scored.

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Hicks is projected for 5.17 punchouts on Wednesday, which doesn't give us a huge cushion for the five he'd need to go Over this total. But that's where the +115 odds come into play. Based on these odds, we're getting nearly 25% +EV on this bet.

As you can see, most of our other best sports betting apps are still offering a total of 3.5 with the Over heavily juiced, and the two books already at 4.5 are featuring the Over at minus money.

Therefore, get this price before the rest of our best sportsbooks jump to 4.5 and that becomes Hicks' standard line trading at minus money.

Best odds: +115 via ESPN BET

Tanner Bibee Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Tigers vs. Guardians | Moneyline: Guardians (-135 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-105)/Under 7.5 (-115) via Betway | Start time: 1:10 p.m. ET

Cleveland Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee was rocked in his last outing, allowing six earned runs on eight hits to the lowly Los Angeles Angels. He managed just four strikeouts across five innings while dropping his K/9 to 9.66 for the season. That's paired with a bloated 3.22 walks per nine innings and 1.49 home runs per nine.

However, Bibee does get the benefit of facing a Detroit Tigers team on Wednesday that strikes out at the league's sixth-highest rate.

Despite that, Bibee is projected for just 5.44 punchouts on Wednesday, based on the average from three of our trusted projection models. We're getting roughly 19% positive expected value on this bet when we run that projection against these -139 odds through BetRivers.

We could soon see our best sports betting sites move Bibee's total to 5.5, as Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - is already as short as -205 for Under 6.5.

Best odds: -139 via BetRivers

Aaron Nola Over 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Game info: Blue Jays vs. Phillies | Moneyline: Phillies (-170 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-115)/Under 8.5 (-105) via Betway | Start time: 1:05 p.m. ET

Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola is no longer the team's ace, as he's been overshadowed by Zack Wheeler. However, Nola is still a quality pitcher, and he'll look to provide Philadelphia with another solid start against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays don't strike out a ton, as they own the seventh-lowest K rate in the league. However, they don't do much of anything else, either, as they own the ninth-worst wRC+ and have scored the fourth-fewest runs in the majors. Therefore, Nola could simply volume his way to this total throughout seven innings.

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Nola is projected for 6.29 punchouts on Wednesday, giving us a decent cushion on the six he needs to clear this total. When we combine that with these +106 odds at FanDuel, we're getting roughly 23% +EV on this bet.

None of our other best live betting sites are offering close to even money on this Over, with Pinnacle trading at -125.

Best odds: +106 via FanDuel

MLB player props made Wednesday at 8 a.m. ET.

Here are our best MLB betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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